MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Research Paper Oct 17, 2025
Investors in U.S. commercial real estate experienced a more active debt market in the first half of 2025 as the volume of originations and the overall count of lenders increased. Some lender groups gained loan-market share while others fell behind as the market continued to adapt to an era of higher Federal Reserve rates.
Highlights:
- Investor-driven lenders, such as private-credit funds, increased their share of the U.S. commercial-mortgage market in the first half of 2025. More banks participated in lending over the period, but banks’ overall share of the market shrank.
- An increase in apartment-building loan foreclosures in the first half of 2025 could indicate wider trouble in refinancing apartment loans that were originated in 2021-22, when borrowing costs were at historic lows.
- An estimated USD 300 billion of commercial-property loans will come due in the second half of 2025. Another estimated USD 600 billion in mortgages have been extended from their original maturity dates, amid a challenged financial market for borrowers.
MCI RESEARCH
